The war on Iran, and in nine countries of the Middle East, continues. DC and Jerusalem (the FedGov and Israelis) continue to increase the “intensity” of the attacks on the Islamic Republic of Iran. Including widening the target list.
And we see more and more people and institutions panicking! One includes one of the world’s biggest banks, JPMorganChase.
One of their analysts recently wrote in the Wall Street Journal about the closure of the Straits of Hormuz. She tells us that this closure is “unthinkable.” Actually, using a silly buzzword, “an unthinkable scenario.”
This is, of course, silly. And just plain wrong. For many decades, indeed going back to pre-1979 (pre-IRI, when there was a Shah), this “scenario” was so thinkable that it was used to train junior US Army officers, including Engineers. Not as a “wargame” scenario or idea for a movie, but as in “how many ways can this stretch of water be closed, and what can Army Engineers do to prevent that, and reopen it if it happens?”
Today, it is not a “scenario,” it is real. It actually has happened. And it is not done by the US, Israel, or their allies (de facto or de jure). (Except, indirectly, of course, as a response to the attack.) Nor was it done by Russians, or Chinese, or whoever. The Iranian regime has done it themselves, both directly and indirectly.
Back in the 1970s, planning (yes, lots and lots of war plans dealt with it) assumed it would be the Soviets. Maybe in cooperation with the Chinese and Indians. (Looking back a half-century, those were pretty dumb assumptions.)
Of course, even then, US “national interests” demanded that such a closure be prevented or ended as quickly as possible. For one thing, in those ancient days, as shown in the Oil Crisis of 1973, a response to the fifth Israeli victory in five wars, it was a direct impact on American fuel consumption. Because in those days, not only was oil a worldwide commodity, but the US imported a lot of soil from the Middle East. Much of which went through these straits. Canada and Mexico shipped very little in those days (contrasted to the present situation in which 2/3 of US consumption comes from our next-door neighbors). The OPEC oil embargo cut of the oil from the Saudis, Iran, Iraq, and all those little sheikdoms around the Persian Gulf.
Today, the US suffers little, except for the fact that prices (being based on worldwide supply and demand) has shot up. But again, nothing like in the 1970s. In current vastly-inflated dollars, gasoline went from about $1.75 to $3.00+ (In 1970, the average retail price of gasoline (including taxes) in the States was $0.36 per gallon (which would be about $3.10 today) and spiked up quickly to $1 or so. Whereas, today, the average US gas price adjusted for inflation is less than the 1974 price of $0.53/gallon ($3.69/gallon in 2026 dollars). Indeed, when adjusted for inflation, the high Stateside prices in the last few days are well below what the average American paid for gasoline in 2021 and 2022!
But… the rest of the world is being very hard hit by the present closure. And except for really stupid people, governments around the world feared that something like this might happen. And (at least they claimed) they were prepared for it.
Except they were not. And as a result, lots of governments are screaming in panic. Including China. Why? Paradigm gives some reasons:
- About 25% of the world’s oil passes through the strait.
- About 15% of the world’s refined diesel and jet fuel (so airline stocks freak out)
- Almost 20% of the world’s LNG: liquified natural gas (why Europeans are scared)
- About 35–40% of the world’s fertilizers
- More than 40% of sulfur
- And 10% or more of aluminum and iron ore (and many other metals)
But banks generally seem to be smarter than governments. And media. And politicians in general. So why is this gal pushing the panic button?
I think we can rule out being stupid. And even poor memory: we know banks have far more access to data and records than, say, TPOL does. So why? Is there an alternative to sinister motives?
Here are some ideas; readers, please, give us your thoughts. We think this is another example of how transnational corporations (and “progressives:’ regressive socialist types) is fearmongering.
We don’t think that the banks are panicked. But they want governments and everyone else to panic, so they are making this bogus claim. This ties to the idea that bankers are certainly a part of the growing coalition of people who hate The Donald and want to make sure he again fails. Even worse than in 2020. This also ties into the idea that they want the Europeans and other nations, and the American public, to lose whatever confidence they have left. Left not just in Trump but in the FedGov as a whole. In other words, these kinds of reactions are hype, propaganda, and at best, another reason to throw stones at The Donald.
So take a deep breath, stay calm, and be prepared for whatever may happen. But it is not Armagaddon, not global economic collapse, and not likely to result in a major shift in anyone’s attitude or plans.
About TPOL Nathan
Follower of Christ Jesus (a christian), Pahasapan (resident of the Black Hills), Westerner, Lover of Liberty, Free-Market Anarchist, Engineer, Army Officer, Husband, Father, Historian, Writer, Evangelist. Successor to Lady Susan (Mama Liberty) at TPOL.
The Price of Liberty 
Stupid? Or just memory-impaired? Or more sinister?
The war on Iran, and in nine countries of the Middle East, continues. DC and Jerusalem (the FedGov and Israelis) continue to increase the “intensity” of the attacks on the Islamic Republic of Iran. Including widening the target list.
And we see more and more people and institutions panicking! One includes one of the world’s biggest banks, JPMorganChase.
One of their analysts recently wrote in the Wall Street Journal about the closure of the Straits of Hormuz. She tells us that this closure is “unthinkable.” Actually, using a silly buzzword, “an unthinkable scenario.”
This is, of course, silly. And just plain wrong. For many decades, indeed going back to pre-1979 (pre-IRI, when there was a Shah), this “scenario” was so thinkable that it was used to train junior US Army officers, including Engineers. Not as a “wargame” scenario or idea for a movie, but as in “how many ways can this stretch of water be closed, and what can Army Engineers do to prevent that, and reopen it if it happens?”
Today, it is not a “scenario,” it is real. It actually has happened. And it is not done by the US, Israel, or their allies (de facto or de jure). (Except, indirectly, of course, as a response to the attack.) Nor was it done by Russians, or Chinese, or whoever. The Iranian regime has done it themselves, both directly and indirectly.
Back in the 1970s, planning (yes, lots and lots of war plans dealt with it) assumed it would be the Soviets. Maybe in cooperation with the Chinese and Indians. (Looking back a half-century, those were pretty dumb assumptions.)
Of course, even then, US “national interests” demanded that such a closure be prevented or ended as quickly as possible. For one thing, in those ancient days, as shown in the Oil Crisis of 1973, a response to the fifth Israeli victory in five wars, it was a direct impact on American fuel consumption. Because in those days, not only was oil a worldwide commodity, but the US imported a lot of soil from the Middle East. Much of which went through these straits. Canada and Mexico shipped very little in those days (contrasted to the present situation in which 2/3 of US consumption comes from our next-door neighbors). The OPEC oil embargo cut of the oil from the Saudis, Iran, Iraq, and all those little sheikdoms around the Persian Gulf.
Today, the US suffers little, except for the fact that prices (being based on worldwide supply and demand) has shot up. But again, nothing like in the 1970s. In current vastly-inflated dollars, gasoline went from about $1.75 to $3.00+ (In 1970, the average retail price of gasoline (including taxes) in the States was $0.36 per gallon (which would be about $3.10 today) and spiked up quickly to $1 or so. Whereas, today, the average US gas price adjusted for inflation is less than the 1974 price of $0.53/gallon ($3.69/gallon in 2026 dollars). Indeed, when adjusted for inflation, the high Stateside prices in the last few days are well below what the average American paid for gasoline in 2021 and 2022!
But… the rest of the world is being very hard hit by the present closure. And except for really stupid people, governments around the world feared that something like this might happen. And (at least they claimed) they were prepared for it.
Except they were not. And as a result, lots of governments are screaming in panic. Including China. Why? Paradigm gives some reasons:
But banks generally seem to be smarter than governments. And media. And politicians in general. So why is this gal pushing the panic button?
I think we can rule out being stupid. And even poor memory: we know banks have far more access to data and records than, say, TPOL does. So why? Is there an alternative to sinister motives?
Here are some ideas; readers, please, give us your thoughts. We think this is another example of how transnational corporations (and “progressives:’ regressive socialist types) is fearmongering.
We don’t think that the banks are panicked. But they want governments and everyone else to panic, so they are making this bogus claim. This ties to the idea that bankers are certainly a part of the growing coalition of people who hate The Donald and want to make sure he again fails. Even worse than in 2020. This also ties into the idea that they want the Europeans and other nations, and the American public, to lose whatever confidence they have left. Left not just in Trump but in the FedGov as a whole. In other words, these kinds of reactions are hype, propaganda, and at best, another reason to throw stones at The Donald.
So take a deep breath, stay calm, and be prepared for whatever may happen. But it is not Armagaddon, not global economic collapse, and not likely to result in a major shift in anyone’s attitude or plans.
Share this:
About TPOL Nathan
Follower of Christ Jesus (a christian), Pahasapan (resident of the Black Hills), Westerner, Lover of Liberty, Free-Market Anarchist, Engineer, Army Officer, Husband, Father, Historian, Writer, Evangelist. Successor to Lady Susan (Mama Liberty) at TPOL.