Well, according to a Taiwanese government official, speaking to Australian media, it is imminent. With nearly daily flyovers into Taiwanese airspace – no NOT just the Taiwanese air defense identification zone – the People’s Liberation Army’s air force seems determined to push the confrontation with the Taiwanese, Americans, Japanese, Filipinos, and Indonesians, while the People’s Liberation Army’ Navy ramps up efforts to heavily fortify more and more “liberated” islands in the vast expanse of sea which China claims. Recently even the Taiwanese President warned of China’s immediate threat, as reported in Vision Times.
It is both actions as well as loud voices and threats – and not just from the Chinese Communist Party’s media arm. Chinese government officials are also being loud and brash. And they love to make threats.
So, will these threats and actions lead to actual war? Read on.
(Some of the mainstream media are making fun of Taiwan’s fears and claims about the PLA Air Force planes in “Taiwanese airspace.” And thus pooh-pooh the worries. Taiwan’s ADIZ does overlap Red China’s and even includes parts of the Chinese Mainland, for very sound tactical and engineering reasons. But the flyovers – some with 50 aircraft or more – are not just in the ADIZ but over the inshore waters and the land of Taiwan itself (or so it is claimed).)
Here is one map showing some, available from OvertDefense.com.
In the last two weeks, the rhetoric and actions beating the drums of war seem to have picked up: the latest being news headlines from Australia’s Sky News about the Chinese practicing invasion techniques. Everyone is quite free about warnings and threats, and the drumbeat is picking up its tempo.
Now, this is not really new: periodically there are periods of such “exercises” and “frank discussions” and warnings about interference. And mainland China (Beijing) has claimed Taiwan ever since the Nationalist regime and forces lost the 30-year-long civil war to the Communists and retreated to the island in 1949. Only four years after the island (more commonly known as Formosa then) was liberated from the Empire of Japan, and returned to “China” after 50 years. That was in 1945, when the US, the British Empire, and the Republic of China defeated the Japanese in that phase of the Great Pacific (or Great Asian) War. Japan, by the way, had invaded and occupied, then annexed the island way back in 1895, by treaty after winning the First Sino-Japanese War.
(For context, remember that in 1898, the US defeated the Spanish Empire and began a 48-year occupation of the Philippines (not counting about three years when Japan conquered the Philippines and then were pushed out). And in 1910, the Japanese annexed the Korea Empire, while Japan defeated the Russian Empire in 1905. People – countries, empires – have been fighting a long time in this part of the world.
For still more context, Taiwan was a DUTCH colony for a few years back in the 1600s, and was only taken over by the Qing Empire (mainland China) in 1683. And like many parts of the mainland, its control by and loyalty to whatever regimes claimed to be the Chinese central)
And in more recent times – the past 50 years – while there has been overt and even low-intensity war, there has been a lot of bickering, challenging, and sometimes some sharp confrontations.
So why is everyone worried now? There are several reasons for the various governments to squabble in the area, and several reasons for China in particular to push hard right now.
And lots of ways to make some serious miscalculations. Which could lead directly to a war that no one really wants, because of the disastrous impacts on their own nations and the world.
Not that such likely impacts have ever done much to prevent wars in the past.
As a result, we may indeed see a “stupid war” between China and its erstwhile colony Taiwan in the near future. With potentially great damage to liberty, peace, and prosperity, around the world.
So if there are things “made in China” that you really like, better get them now. Especially if you keep the supply chain problems in mind. And maybe put in a stock of Foster’s and anything else you like from Australia. Fun times MAY be coming.