A lot of attention has been paid to Europe’s energy situation since Russia’s ‘special military operation’ began in February, eight months ago. Driven by both geopolitical needs (control of their perimeter) and the treatment of the linguistic/ethnic Russians by the corrupt Kyiv regime, the war seemed intended to be a limited operation similar to the success annexation of the Crimea in 2014. There has also been a certain amount of “egging on” by NATO – Brussels, DC, and London – especially since Uncle Joe occupied 1600 PA. Oops.
Of course, the plans didn’t survive contact with the Ukrainians. Russia overestimated both the quality of its forces and the willingness of the Ukrainians (both military and civilian) to fight. And perhaps also underestimated just how perfidious NATO was, as well as how much treasure and risk they would offer up to “stop Putin.”
Why the energy situation? The incredible stupidity of European leaders: not just of Germany and France, but most of the EU and NATO, over the past decade have made Europe dangerously, heavily dependent on Russian energy. Oil and natural gas – despite their classification as “fossil fuel” and therefore supposedly anathema to the green conscience and religion – have been increasingly supplying Germany’s and other nations’ transportation, industry, and consumer power and heat. They closed the evil nuclear plants, stopped such nasty horrors as fracking and other oil and gas best practices, and stopped mining and burning coal. Although they have scarred far more landscape with wind turbines and solar farms, these are unreliable and inadequate. Particularly for Europe’s growing population – consisting mostly of more and more Muslims (and a few African christians and animists).
Although recognized as a problem since at least March, at first there really wasn’t much disruption, even as NATO hammered Russia with frozen bank accounts, embargos – even of food, and many other things. But the oil and gas continued to flow – not just through the various pipelines but by ship. Even from Russia thru Ukraine to the rest of Europe. As oil flows were reduced, Europe played “hide the pea” games, but gas kept flowing.
But then, this quickly changed for the worse: the pipelines under the Baltic were disrupted by maintenance, equipment repair, and then by cutting back the flow at the Russian end.
Why? To put pressure on the Europeans. Putin knows that even if Russia is able (increasingly unlikely) to stave off a full NATO entry into the ground war in Ukraine – or an all out attack across a front even wider than the Eastern Front in the opening phase of Fell Barbarossa in 1941, IF Russia can weaken NATO’s united front by geopolitically threatening the core (Germany, Benelux, France, maybe Italy) with a cold and powerless winter, this disaster can be avoided.
But it lost this leverage when someone sabotaged the pipelines. Someone? More and more are betting on the CIA and the idiots in DC. So there is not much reason for Germany to negotiate a “separate peace” with Russia (and Belarus) because right now Russia has nothing to offer without the natural gas. Bad for Russia, right?
Yes, but… For Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, even possibly France and Italy and Central Europe (Poland, the Czechs and Slovaks, Hungary), winter is coming. Not just any winter, but perhaps Fimbulwinter. The penultimate winter before Ragnarok – Armageddon (to mix legends and myths).
As Paradigm warns us, there is a lot of blather about how German reserves have been filled up to near 90% capacity. But, this ignores the fact that reserves are only about 20% of what is needed for the winter. So, they have just about 18% of what they need: in a harsh winter they will be exhausted quickly. There is some meteorological evidence that it may be an especially cold, harsh winter.
Time for Berlin to get serious: Time to shut down industry, ration energy, and force everyone to set thermostats to 10C (that’s 50F): chilly. Heavy clothing? Sleeping bags?Yep, just to stay warm indoors. We can expect many will die of hypothermia, and perhaps more to die as the “gastarbeiter” (guest workers) from nice warm Muslim and other Mediterranean countries demonstrate their “anti-social behavior” and invade homes and businesses, torch trash bins and automobiles in the streets (to get warm) and worse. It isn’t just heat: it is also transportation: most trains in Europe are electric: that power comes from somewhere – often Russian-gas-fired generators when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow.
And despite the “idealism” and madness of the green-minded Germany bureaucrats and politicians in Berlin, Muenchen, Frankfurt and elsewhere, there is a hard core of Germans who understand realpolitick – and may be set free to practice it.
If Germany succumbs to winter it is likely to pull much of Europe with it: either into the chaos of collapse or into a Fourth Reich. A regime which very well could make its peace with Moscow and seek to reorder the world. Which could be the signal for many other things: a new alliance with the remnants of OPEC and Russia, a whole lot of brick walls with pockmarks and lots of blood at the foot, not just in Koeln and Hamburg and Berlin but in Amsterdam and Brussels and Paris and Marseilles and elsewhere.
And a faceoff against whatever is left of the States and our empire after the 2022 elections and the growing insanity AND the rapidly-fading regime in China.
Not a pretty picture: Fimbulwinter and Ragnarok indeed.
And fairly unlikely, we admit. But some lesser version of this, with a Newer Great Depression as Uncle Joe and the regressives try to stay in power and rescue their buddies in Europe here in the States and the rest of the world looking like post-WW2 France and Italy and Germany.
Think and plan.